Pair #11849

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-XSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 28322

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-XSCH

The Open Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3956

YES ask: 0.5900
NO ask: 0.4700
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] Winning any major (e.g. Masters) does not require a top40 finish at The Open specifically.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -62.93% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5600 + ~$0.0190 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -67.37% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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