Pair #11848

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JROS

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 40369

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS

The Open Championship: Will Justin Rose finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3239

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.4700
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: Winning any major (e.g. Masters) does not require a top40 finish at The Open specifically.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -61.34% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5300 + ~$0.0187 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -65.78% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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