Pair #11846

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-KBRA

The Open Championship: Will Keegan Bradley finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 938

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027USA-KBRA

Keegan Bradley to be the U.S. Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup

Series: KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2027-09-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 786

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley is the U.S. Team Captain at the 2027 Ryder Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: Different, independent events with no rule-based connection.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -76.13% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600 + ~$0.0090 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -80.36% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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