Pair #11843

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-KBRA

The Open Championship: Will Keegan Bradley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 11864

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027USA-KBRA

Keegan Bradley to be the U.S. Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup

Series: KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2027-09-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 786

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley is the U.S. Team Captain at the 2027 Ryder Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: Captaincy in 2027 and a 2026 tournament finish are unrelated events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -37.37% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100 + ~$0.0120 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -41.60% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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