Pair #11840

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNCAAF-27-ILL

Will Illinois win the College Football Playoff National Championship?

Series: KXNCAAF
Entity: Illinois
Expiration: 2027-01-26T04:00:00Z
Volume: 21192

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Illinois wins the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-ILL

Will Illinois qualify for the College Football Playoffs?

Series: KXNCAAFPLAYOFF
Entity: Illinois
Expiration: 2026-12-15T15:00:00Z
Volume: 245

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Illinois is one of the teams to qualify for the College Football Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNCAAF-27-CAL/KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-CAL] [structural reuse of KXNCAAF-27-MICH/KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MICH] Winning the CFP National Championship requires having qualified for the College Football Playoffs. So winning the championship necessitates playoff qualification, but not vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -9.31% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0500 + ~$0.0033 est. fees
Days to maturity: 194
Hurdle yield: 4.45%
Excess yield: -13.77% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue