Pair #11835

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-CSMI

Cameron Smith to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)?

Series: KXLIVCOMPETE
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2027-04-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 231

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith competes in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027), then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-CSMI

The Open Championship: Will Cameron Smith finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 6686

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-THAT/KXPGATOP20-THOC26-THAT] Competing in a LIV Golf event in Q1 2027 is unrelated to finishing top 20 at the 2026 Open Championship; neither necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -2.46% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000 + ~$0.0179 est. fees
Days to maturity: 259
Hurdle yield: 4.48%
Excess yield: -6.94% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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