Pair #11823

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHOJ

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 799

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rasmus Hojgaard wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-RHOJ

Will Rasmus Hojgaard lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4554

YES ask: 0.0060
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0060

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rasmus Hojgaard is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHEN/KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-RHEN] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE/KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-PREE] Winning a major doesn't require leading after Round 1 of the Open (could win a different major or come from behind), and leading Round 1 doesn't guarantee winning the tournament or any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -1.38% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0060 + ~$0.0004 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -5.82% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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