Pair #11822

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8968

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-RMAC

The Open Championship: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2333

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH/KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JRAH] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SLOW/KXPGATOP5-THOC26-SLOW] Winning any major (possibly not The Open Championship) doesn't guarantee a top 5 finish there, and a top 5 finish there doesn't guarantee a major win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -23.29% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1200 + ~$0.0098 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -27.73% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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