Pair #11817

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SJIM

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2432

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-SIM

The Open Championship: Will Sungjae Im finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3232

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BCAU/KXPGATOP10-THOC26-BCAU] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC/KXPGATOP10-THOC26-RMAC] Winning any of the four majors could be achieved via a different major (e.g., Masters), so it doesn't require a top-10 finish at The Open; and a top-10 finish at The Open doesn't mean winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -12.60% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600 + ~$0.0039 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -17.04% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue