Antecedent (if this happens)
KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-THAT
Tyrrell Hatton to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)?
Series: KXLIVCOMPETE
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2027-04-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 647
YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.1800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tyrrell Hatton competes in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027), then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-THAT
The Open Championship: Will Tyrrell Hatton make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 474
YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.3100
Last: 0.7100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tyrrell Hatton has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-BDEC/KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-BDEC] Competing in a LIV event in Q1 2027 and making the cut at the 2026 Open Championship are unrelated events with no logical dependency.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-46.31%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.5300
+ ~$0.0247 est. fees
Days to maturity:
259
Hurdle yield:
4.48%
Excess yield:
-50.79%
BELOW HURDLE