Pair #1181

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-TFIN

Valspar Championship: Will Tony Finau finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5462

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-TFIN

Valspar Championship: Will Tony Finau finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 31301

YES ask: 0.5800
NO ask: 0.4300
Last: 0.5700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:20:03Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 as well. However, finishing top 20 does not imply finishing top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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