Pair #11809

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-THAT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5823

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-THAT

The Open Championship: Will Tyrrell Hatton make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 474

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.3100
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC/KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-RMAC] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE/KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-LABE] Making the cut at The Open doesn't imply a major win, and a major win could happen at a different tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -68.66% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6900 + ~$0.0158 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -73.10% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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