Pair #11808

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MMCN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3222

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MMCN

The Open Championship: Will Maverick McNealy make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1029

YES ask: 0.6300
NO ask: 0.3800
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC/KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-RMAC] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE/KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-LABE] Making the cut at The Open doesn't imply a major win, and a major win could happen at a different tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -65.73% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6200 + ~$0.0170 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -70.17% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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