Pair #11804

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-HMAT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6197

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-HMAT

Will Hideki Matsuyama lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 20274

YES ask: 0.0150
NO ask: 0.9980
Last: 0.0140

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHEN/KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-RHEN] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE/KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-PREE] Winning a major doesn't require leading after Round 1 of the Open (could win a different major or come from behind), and leading Round 1 doesn't guarantee winning the tournament or any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -1.45% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0050 + ~$0.0017 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -5.89% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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