Pair #11803

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2858

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JSPA

The Open Championship: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1704

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE/KXPGATOP20-THOC26-PREE] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BCAU/KXPGATOP20-THOC26-BCAU] Winning any major doesn't require winning/placing top20 specifically at The Open Championship, since he could win a different major instead.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -40.96% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2600 + ~$0.0145 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -45.40% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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