Pair #11802

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2858

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JSPA

The Open Championship: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 936

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BCAU/KXPGATOP10-THOC26-BCAU] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC/KXPGATOP10-THOC26-RMAC] Winning any of the four majors could be achieved via a different major (e.g., Masters), so it doesn't require a top-10 finish at The Open; and a top-10 finish at The Open doesn't mean winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -24.65% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1300 + ~$0.0091 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -29.09% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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