Pair #118

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN

Will Denver have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?

Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6149

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denver has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCWEST-27-DEN

Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC West Division?

Series: KXNFLAFCWEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 29426

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denver wins the Pro Football AFC West Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:01:45Z

Reasoning: If Denver has the best record in the entire NFL, they necessarily have the best record in their division (the AFC West), so they must win the AFC West division title. The reverse does not hold — Denver could win the AFC West without having the league's best record.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -25.82% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2300
Days to maturity: 253
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -30.10% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T09:11:35Z

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