Pair #118

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN

Will Denver have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?

Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 10701

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denver has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCWEST-27-DEN

Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC West Division?

Series: KXNFLAFCWEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 37923

YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denver wins the Pro Football AFC West Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:01:45Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: If Denver has the best record in the entire NFL, they necessarily have the best record in their division (the AFC West), so they must win the AFC West division title. The reverse does not hold — Denver could win the AFC West without having the league's best record.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -32.16% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2300 + ~$0.0174 est. fees
Days to maturity: 208
Hurdle yield: 4.46%
Excess yield: -36.62% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T09:11:35Z

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