Pair #11798

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-ABHA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 15034

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-ABHA

The Open Championship: Will Akshay Bhatia make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 364

YES ask: 0.6200
NO ask: 0.4000
Last: 0.6100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC/KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-RMAC] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE/KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-LABE] Making the cut at The Open doesn't imply a major win, and a major win could happen at a different tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -65.70% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6200 + ~$0.0165 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -70.14% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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