Pair #11797

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JTHO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8297

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JTHO

The Open Championship: Will Justin Thomas finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1591

YES ask: 0.3000
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE/KXPGATOP20-THOC26-PREE] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BCAU/KXPGATOP20-THOC26-BCAU] Winning any major doesn't require winning/placing top20 specifically at The Open Championship, since he could win a different major instead.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -43.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2900 + ~$0.0154 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -48.40% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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