Pair #11795

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JNIE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1911

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JNIE

The Open Championship: Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3182

YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE/KXPGATOP20-THOC26-PREE] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BCAU/KXPGATOP20-THOC26-BCAU] Winning any major doesn't require winning/placing top20 specifically at The Open Championship, since he could win a different major instead.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -41.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2700 + ~$0.0148 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -46.43% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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