Pair #11793

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 21830

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JSPI

The Open Championship: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4129

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH/KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JRAH] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SLOW/KXPGATOP5-THOC26-SLOW] Winning any major (possibly not The Open Championship) doesn't guarantee a top 5 finish there, and a top 5 finish there doesn't guarantee a major win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -8.93% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400 + ~$0.0040 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -13.37% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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