Pair #11790

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-STHE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 7523

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-STHE

The Open Championship: Will Sahith Theegala finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 340

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH/KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JRAH] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SLOW/KXPGATOP5-THOC26-SLOW] Winning any major (possibly not The Open Championship) doesn't guarantee a top 5 finish there, and a top 5 finish there doesn't guarantee a major win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -8.68% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400 + ~$0.0027 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -13.12% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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