Pair #1179

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-TFIN

Valspar Championship: Will Tony Finau finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 31301

YES ask: 0.5800
NO ask: 0.4300
Last: 0.5700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-TFIN

Valspar Championship: Will Tony Finau make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3193

YES ask: 0.9000
NO ask: 0.1600
Last: 0.6500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:20:03Z

Reasoning: If Finau finishes top 20 at the Valspar Championship, he must have made the cut to play the weekend rounds and achieve that finish. Making the cut does not imply finishing top 20.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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