Pair #11789

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-STHE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 7523

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-SAT

Will Sahith Theegala lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 5365

YES ask: 0.0080
NO ask: 0.9950
Last: 0.0070

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHEN/KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-RHEN] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE/KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-PREE] Winning a major doesn't require leading after Round 1 of the Open (could win a different major or come from behind), and leading Round 1 doesn't guarantee winning the tournament or any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -1.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0080 + ~$0.0006 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -6.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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