Pair #11781

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PCAN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3988

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-PCAN

The Open Championship: Will Patrick Cantlay make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1765

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.3100
Last: 0.6900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC/KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-RMAC] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE/KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-LABE] Making the cut at The Open doesn't imply a major win, and a major win could happen at a different tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -69.03% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7000 + ~$0.0151 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -73.47% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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