Pair #11777

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SWOO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Si Woo Kim
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2812

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Si Woo Kim wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-WKIM

Will Si Woo Kim lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Si Woo Kim
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 17990

YES ask: 0.0160
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0160

View on Kalshi

Rules If Si Woo Kim is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHEN/KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-RHEN] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE/KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-PREE] Winning a major doesn't require leading after Round 1 of the Open (could win a different major or come from behind), and leading Round 1 doesn't guarantee winning the tournament or any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -1.67% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0060 + ~$0.0018 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -6.11% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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