Pair #11772

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CMOR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 22073

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-CMOR

The Open Championship: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2121

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH/KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JRAH] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SLOW/KXPGATOP5-THOC26-SLOW] Winning any major (possibly not The Open Championship) doesn't guarantee a top 5 finish there, and a top 5 finish there doesn't guarantee a major win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -20.09% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1000 + ~$0.0088 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -24.53% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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