Pair #11770

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-PHAR

The Open Championship: Will Padraig Harrington finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1516

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Padraig Harrington finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027EUR-PHAR

Padraig Harrington to be the Europe Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup

Series: KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2027-09-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1264

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Padraig Harrington is the Europe Team Captain at the 2027 Ryder Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JROS/KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027EUR-JROS] Being a future Ryder Cup captain has no bearing on a 2026 Open Championship finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -86.30% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0900 + ~$0.0070 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -90.53% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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