Pair #1177

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-TFIN

Valspar Championship: Will Tony Finau finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 31301

YES ask: 0.5800
NO ask: 0.4300
Last: 0.5700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-TFIN

Will Tony Finau win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1385475

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:20:03Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 at the Valspar Championship does not imply winning the Masters, and winning the Masters does not imply finishing top 20 at the Valspar Championship. These are entirely separate tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.4310
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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