Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-FMOL
The Open Championship: Will Francesco Molinari make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Francesco Molinari
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1036
YES ask: 0.5200
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.4900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Francesco Molinari has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027EUR-FMOL
Francesco Molinari to be the Europe Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup
Series: KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN
Entity: Francesco Molinari
Expiration: 2027-09-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4831
YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.4900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Francesco Molinari is the Europe Team Captain at the 2027 Ryder Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027EUR-JROS] Captaincy in 2027 is unrelated to making the cut at the 2026 Open.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
>999%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.6100
+ ~$0.0238 est. fees
Days to maturity:
2
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
>999%
PROFITABLE