Pair #11768

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-FMOL

Will Francesco Molinari lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Francesco Molinari
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 43522

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9940
Last: 0.0070

View on Kalshi

Rules If Francesco Molinari is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027EUR-FMOL

Francesco Molinari to be the Europe Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup

Series: KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN
Entity: Francesco Molinari
Expiration: 2027-09-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4831

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.4900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Francesco Molinari is the Europe Team Captain at the 2027 Ryder Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JROS/KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027EUR-JROS] [structural reuse of KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-PHAR/KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027EUR-PHAR] No logical connection between a captaincy appointment and a round-1 lead in a golf tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -88.80% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0940 + ~$0.0067 est. fees
Days to maturity: 16
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -93.03% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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