Pair #11766

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-FMOL

The Open Championship: Will Francesco Molinari finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Francesco Molinari
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4049

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Francesco Molinari finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027EUR-FMOL

Francesco Molinari to be the Europe Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup

Series: KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN
Entity: Francesco Molinari
Expiration: 2027-09-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4831

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.4900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Francesco Molinari is the Europe Team Captain at the 2027 Ryder Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JROS/KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027EUR-JROS] Being a future Ryder Cup captain has no bearing on a 2026 Open Championship finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -80.20% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700 + ~$0.0083 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -84.43% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue