Pair #11762

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-KBRA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1194

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-KBRA

The Open Championship: Will Keegan Bradley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 11864

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BCAU/KXPGATOP10-THOC26-BCAU] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC/KXPGATOP10-THOC26-RMAC] Winning any of the four majors could be achieved via a different major (e.g., Masters), so it doesn't require a top-10 finish at The Open; and a top-10 finish at The Open doesn't mean winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -21.35% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1100 + ~$0.0069 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -25.79% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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