Pair #11753

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-COPC26-SJAE

Will Stephan Jaeger lead at the end of Round 1 in the Corales Puntacana Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-08-02T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3165

YES ask: 0.0230
NO ask: 0.9810
Last: 0.0230

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-COPC26-SJAE

Will Stephan Jaeger win the Corales Puntacana Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-07-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 21336

YES ask: 0.0460
NO ask: 0.9660
Last: 0.0340

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger wins the Corales Puntacana Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -48.49% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0270 + ~$0.0044 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -52.72% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue