Pair #11752

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-COPC26-AHAD

Will Adam Hadwin lead at the end of Round 1 in the Corales Puntacana Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Adam Hadwin
Expiration: 2026-08-02T00:00:00Z
Volume: 552

YES ask: 0.0140
NO ask: 0.9930
Last: 0.0190

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Hadwin is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-COPC26-AHAD

Will Adam Hadwin win the Corales Puntacana Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Adam Hadwin
Expiration: 2026-07-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2415

YES ask: 0.0090
NO ask: 0.9980
Last: 0.0050

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Hadwin wins the Corales Puntacana Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -6.45% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0020 + ~$0.0011 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -10.68% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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