Pair #11743

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-MTHO

Will Michael Thorbjornsen lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 7853

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 0.9910
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-MTHO

Will Michael Thorbjornsen win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 412792

YES ask: 0.0070
NO ask: 0.9950
Last: 0.0070

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 1.93% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9980 + ~$0.0011 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -2.30% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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