Pair #11726

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MWAL

The Open Championship: Will Matt Wallace finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matt Wallace
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 17653

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Wallace finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MWAL

The Open Championship: Will Matt Wallace make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matt Wallace
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 700

YES ask: 0.6100
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.6000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Wallace has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4500 + ~$0.0261 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.21% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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