Pair #11723

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-DPUI

The Open Championship: Will David Puig finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: David Puig
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1373

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Puig finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-DPUI

The Open Championship: Will David Puig make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: David Puig
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1023

YES ask: 0.5100
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Puig has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.97% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4600 + ~$0.0208 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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