Pair #11717

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MHOM

The Open Championship: Will Max Homa finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1438

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max Homa finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MHOM

The Open Championship: Will Max Homa finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 6305

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max Homa finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -86.27% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0900 + ~$0.0129 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -90.50% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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