Pair #11711

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MHOM

The Open Championship: Will Max Homa finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 6305

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max Homa finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MHOM

The Open Championship: Will Max Homa make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 2093

YES ask: 0.5600
NO ask: 0.4700
Last: 0.5600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max Homa has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.94% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4200 + ~$0.0257 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.17% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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