Pair #11699

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MJOR

The Open Championship: Will Matthew Jordan make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matthew Jordan
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1450

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matthew Jordan has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-MAJ

Will Matthew Jordan lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Matthew Jordan
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 13290

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0080

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matthew Jordan is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): >999% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.5200 + ~$0.0182 est. fees
Days to maturity: 2
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: >999% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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