Pair #11698

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MJOR

The Open Championship: Will Matthew Jordan finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matthew Jordan
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 7699

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthew Jordan finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MJOR

The Open Championship: Will Matthew Jordan make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matthew Jordan
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1450

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthew Jordan has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.96% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4100 + ~$0.0232 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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