Pair #11694

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MJOR

The Open Championship: Will Matthew Jordan finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matthew Jordan
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1370

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthew Jordan finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MJOR

The Open Championship: Will Matthew Jordan make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matthew Jordan
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1450

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthew Jordan has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4700 + ~$0.0195 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.21% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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