Pair #11690

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-ELOP

Will Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 111184

YES ask: 0.0050
NO ask: 0.9960
Last: 0.0050

View on Kalshi

Rules If Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-ELOP

The Open Championship: Will Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1420

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOUR is a strict subset of KXPGATOP10 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.81% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0660 + ~$0.0048 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.04% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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