Pair #11685

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-AFIT

The Open Championship: Will Alex Fitzpatrick finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Alex Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2186

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alex Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-AFIT

The Open Championship: Will Alex Fitzpatrick finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Alex Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4098

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7200
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alex Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -95.35% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1400 + ~$0.0233 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -99.58% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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