Pair #1168

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-MHOM

Valspar Championship: Will Max Homa finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1764

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max Homa finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-MHOM

Valspar Championship: Will Max Homa finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4257

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max Homa finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:19:45Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 10 as well. The reverse is not true; a top 10 finish could be positions 6-10, which would not resolve the top 5 market YES.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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