Pair #11678

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-NHOJ

Will Nicolai Hojgaard lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8843

YES ask: 0.0080
NO ask: 0.9980
Last: 0.0070

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nicolai Hojgaard is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-NHOJ

Will Nicolai Hojgaard win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 597097

YES ask: 0.0090
NO ask: 0.9930
Last: 0.0080

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nicolai Hojgaard wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -15.30% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0070 + ~$0.0008 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -19.53% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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