Pair #11673

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JSMI

Will Jordan L. Smith lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 11225

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 0.9980
Last: 0.0080

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan L. Smith is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JSMI

The Open Championship: Will Jordan L. Smith finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 951

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan L. Smith finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -97.03% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1680 + ~$0.0100 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -101.26% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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