Pair #11668

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JPAR

The Open Championship: Will John Parry finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: John Parry
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 13462

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If John Parry finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JPAR

The Open Championship: Will John Parry make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: John Parry
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1704

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.4600
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If John Parry has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.97% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4400 + ~$0.0242 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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