Pair #11662

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JKNA

Will Jake Knapp lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jake Knapp
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 7491

YES ask: 0.0070
NO ask: 0.9940
Last: 0.0070

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jake Knapp is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JKNA

The Open Championship: Will Jake Knapp finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jake Knapp
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1543

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jake Knapp finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -94.31% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1340 + ~$0.0088 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -98.54% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue